TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH STATEMENT

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
8:00 AM ECT MON, SEP 4, 2017

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

TO INCLUDE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, MONTSERRAT, ST. KITTS, NEVIS AND ANGUILLA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. THIS WARNING COULD BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
WARNING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT BASED UPON THE MOVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF IRMA.

AT 8 AM ECT OR 1200Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST OR ABOUT 610 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 665 MILES AWAY FROM ST. KITTS & NEVIS.
IRMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTH WEST AT 14 MILES PER HOUR.

A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST NORTH WEST LATE TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF IRMA WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 120 MPH. IRMA REMAINS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB OR 27.96 INCHES.

BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, IRMA HAS STRENGTHENED, AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
ITS PATH THROUGH THE REGION. ALSO IRMA IS ON A PROJECTED PATH THAT BRINGS THE CYCLONE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE LEEWARD ISLAND ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

A TURN TO THE WEST AND
SUBSEQUENTLY WEST NORTH WEST IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SHOULD THERE BE ANY DELAY IN THIS SHIFT IN MOTION, IRMA COULD MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS MEANS THAT
STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD BE WORSE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AFTER MIDDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING AND RESIDENT IN LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUNDS.
MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN PORT AND SEEK SAFE ANCHORAGE. SEAS HAVE STARTED TO DETERIORATE AND WILL GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF IRMA CYCLONE CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 11:30 AM ECT

FORECASTER
ORVIN PAIGE