WHCA31 TAPA
HURRICANE JERRY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:00 AM ECT FRI, SEP 20, 2019
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
…JERRY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY…
AT 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST OR ABOUT 223 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 387 MILES EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
JERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JERRY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY, PASS WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY, AND BE WELL EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY, BUT JERRY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB (28.97 INCHES).
BASED UPON THE LATEST POSITION AND ANALYSES, HURRICANE JERRY IS PROJECTED TO PASS AT A SAFE DISTANCE OF OVER 100 MILES
TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. HOWEVER CLOUDINESS, SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS.
AS A PRECAUTION, MARINERS ARE ASKED TO STAY IN PORT AND AVOID THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT 12 – 24 HOURS UNTIL JERRY PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
NO WATCHES OR WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS HENCE NO SPECIFIC ACTION IS REQUIRED OF RESIDENCE OTHER THAN TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY AND REVIEW HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS.
FORECASTER
ORVIN PAIGE
