WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 2:00 PM ECT MON JUL 27 2020
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
…A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN OUR MONITORED AREA BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT CURRENTLY REQUIRED.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE IMPACTS, AT THIS TIME. NOTWITHSTANDING, AL92 IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS, AT LEAST, A TROPICAL STORM.
THEREFORE, IT POSES A MODERATE THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS, ELEVATED STORM SURGE, EXTREME SEAS, MODERATE FLOODING AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES, RESULTING IN LIFE- THREATENING CONDITIONS, DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE AND SOME DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE. TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.
AT 2 PM LST OR 1800 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL92 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 45.0
WEST OR ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OR ABOUT 1214 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST.KITTS & NEVIS.
THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 30 MPH. THE SYSTEM IS NOT YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT HAS AN 80 PERCENT OR HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING ONE.
ON ITS PROJECTED FORECAST TRACK, AL92 COULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY AS
A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH HIGH CERTAINTY THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE SYSTEM, THE WIND INTENSITY ON ARRIVAL AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS.
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL92 AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS IN THE EVENT THAT THE THREAT LEVEL FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 8 PM TONIGHT.
FORECASTER
LORNE SALMON
