8 AM LST MON JUL 27 2020
…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL92 HAS ENTERED THE MONITORED AREA…
A TROPICAL STORM ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM ALERT MEANS, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN OUR MONITORED AREA BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED, AT THIS TIME.
IT IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE IMPACTS, AT THIS TIME. NOTWITHSTANDING, AL92 IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY IN LESS THAN 60 HOURS AS, AT LEAST, TROPICAL STORM. THEREFORE, IT POSES A MODERATE THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS, ELEVATED STORM SURGE, EXTREME
SEAS, MODERATE FLOODING AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES, RESULTING IN LIFETHREATENING CONDITIONS, DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE AND SOME DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE. TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.
AT 8 AM LST OR 1200 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL92 WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1200 MILES EASTSOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OR ABOUT 1280 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.
THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 18 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 30 MPH. RECALL THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING ONE AND IS LIKELY TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS.
ON ITS PROJECTED FORECAST TRACK, AL92 COULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A BIT TO EARLY TO SAY WITH HIGH CERTAINTY THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE SYSTEM, THE WIND INTENSITY ON ARRIVAL AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS. THE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS FROM AL92 COULD PASS A SAFE DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS AND SPARE THEM ANY SERIOUS IMPACT.
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL92 AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS, AS THE SYSTEM POSES A MODERATE AND GROWING THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE, PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AROUND 2 PM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED.
Sunny regards,
Dale Destin
Director (Ag)
Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service
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