TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
2:00 AM ECT FRI, AUG 13, 2021
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
AFFECT THE AREA…
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN
THIS CASE, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH OVER A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA. WATCHES
AND WARNINGS ARE NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME BUT MAY BE REQUIRED IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
GIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AL95 FORECAST TRACK,
SIZE AND INTENSITY, IT IS NOT YET POSSIBLE TO SAY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE WHAT WILL BECOME OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
NOTWITHSTANDING, AT THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE AL95 POSES A MINOR THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS AND MINOR
FLOODING, RESULTING IN SOME DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE AND MINOR
DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE. TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT
YOUR HURRICANE SEASON DISASTER PLANS.
AT 2 AM ECT OR 0600 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95
WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1030 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. AL95 CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST AT 20 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM NOW HAS A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE WEEKEND.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A LOT
OF TIME FOR IT TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND SPARE THE ISLANDS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 CLOSELY AND
HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED TO SAFEGUARD LIFE,
PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD, IN THE EVENT THAT WATCHES OR WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
