ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 8:00 AM ECT SAT, SEP 18, 2021
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION, AND COULD THREATEN THE AREA…
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH OVER A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA. WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME BUT MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AT 8 AM ECT OR 1200 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS AND ALSO A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN FIVE DAYS.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BE AT ITS CLOSEST POINT TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND THE REST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE AS WELL AS THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS TO THE ISLANDS. FOR THIS REASON, RESIDENTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DISTURBANCE.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 2 PM OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED.
FORECASTER ORVIN PAIGE
