WOCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 11:30 AM ECT WED 14 SEP 2022
…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL96 HAS BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AND CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA…
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER.
IT IS A BIT TO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE FULL IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM, IF ANY, WITH HIGH CERTAINTY. HOWEVER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY ON FRIDAY AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THEREFORE, IT POSES AN ELEVATED THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS, AND MINOR FLOODING, RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE. TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.
AT 11 AM ECT OR 1500 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OR ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS OR 848 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 14 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND, AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF THE ISLANDS BEING AFFECTED BY STORM-FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS, AND MINOR FLOODING FROM POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES. NOTWITHSTANDING, IT IS A BIT EARLY TO SAY, WITH HIGH CERTAINTY, THE EVENTUAL PATH, SIZE, AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND HENCE, THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS, IF ANY. A FEW MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH SIMILAR TO EARL.
NOTE THAT THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME; BUT WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER.
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS, IF CALLED UPON TO DO SO. THE THREAT IS MINOR, AT THIS TIME, BUT IT COULD INCREASE TO MODERATE/MEDIUM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 6 PM ECT 2200 UTC THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER IF NEEDED.
FORECASTER
DALE DESTIN/LETITIA HUMPHREYS
