ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:00 AM ECT MON, SEP 18, 2017
THIS IS FOR St. Kitts and Nevis
HURRICANE MARIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY… A HURRICANE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST KITTS AND NEVIS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST OR ABOUT 246 MILES SE OF ST KITTS AND 233 SE OF NEVIS.
MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM). THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB (28.85 INCHES).
BASED UPON THE LATEST TRACK AND ANALYSIS, HURRICANE MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS WITH APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES OF ST KITTS AND NEVIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE EVENT WILL LIKELY START TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING CLOSE TO MIDDAY. RESIDENTS OF ST KITTS AND NEVIS SHOULD TAKE ALL THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES ALONG SLOPES AND FLASH FLOODS IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD GUARD AGAINST FLASH FLOOD AND RESIDENTS NEAR SLOPES SHOULD GUARD AGAINST MUDSLIDES. DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES OF HEIGHTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 20FT WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
THEREFORE, MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN PORT AND COMPLETE SAFE ANCHORAGE. ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF MARIA CLOSELY AND TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 11 ECT
