WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:30 AM ECT SAT, SEP 21, 2019
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
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…JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUT COULD STILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BVI TODAY…
AT 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR 229 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANGUILLA, 299 MILES NORTH OF BARBUDA AND 211 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BVI. JERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTIOIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
JERRY IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JERRY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS EVENING, PASS WELL NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY, PASS WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY AND TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM) FROM THE CENTRE.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).
BASED UPON THE LATEST POSITION AND ANALYSES, TROPICAL JERRY IS PASSING AT A SAFE DISTANCE OF WELL OVER 200 MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS; HOWEVER, TRAILING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
AS A PRECAUTION, MARINERS ARE ASKED TO STAY IN PORT AND AVOID THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT 12 – 24 HOURS UNTIL JERRY PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
NO WATCHES OR WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS; HENCE, NO SPECIFIC ACTION IS REQUIRED OF RESIDENTS OTHER THAN TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 11 AM ECT
FORECASTER
BERNELL SIMON
