WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL DEPRESION ELEVEN ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 5:00 AM ECT WED, AUG 12, 2020
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY…
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN DETERMINING THE MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS THE DEPRESSSION WILL HAVE ON THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL POSES A THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE IMPACTS FROM WINDS, STORM SURGE, SEAS AND FLOODING.
AT 5:00AM ECT OR 0900Z, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1367 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. KITTS & NEVIS AND ABOUT 1506 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY LATER TODAY.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN COULD NEAR THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE SYSTEM, THE WIND INTENSITY ON ARRIVAL AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN COULD STILL PASS OVER 120 MILES AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS AND SPARE US ANY SERIOUS IMPACT.
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLAN SHOULD THIS SYSTEM BECOME A GREATER THREAT TO THE ISLANDS.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE LATER TODAY.
ANTIGUA MET SERVICES
FORECASTER
LORNE SALMON
