10:40 AM LST TUE AUG 18 2020
…TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM AND THREATEN NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN…
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL98 LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE EVENTUAL TROPICAL CYCLONE, WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM AL98, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHAT EXACT TROPICAL-CYCLONE-HAZARD VALUES, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR, THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. NOTWITHSTANDING, THE DISTURBANCE COULD BE IN THE VICINITY AROUND FRIDAY/SATURDAY, AS A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE. THE THREAT LEVEL IS LITTLE TO NONE, AT THIS TIME, BUT IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO, AT LEAST, ELEVATED LEVELS LATER TODAY; HENCE, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT WILL BE REQUIRED THEN. TO BE SAFE, HAVE YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLANS PREPARED AND MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
AT 10 AM LST OR 1400 UTC, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL98 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0
NORTH AND LONGITUDE 36.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1720 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS, MOVING WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST AT AROUND 18 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 35 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN 48 HOURS.
AL98 COULD IMPACT THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN, AS A STORM OR HURRICANE; HOWEVER, IT COULD ALSO FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH TO JOSEPHINE AND SPARE THE ISLANDS ANY HARM. IT IS VERY EARLY DAYS AND ANY NUMBER OF THINGS COULD HAPPEN. PREPARED FOR THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.
NO ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT, AT THIS TIME, BUT AN ALERT WILL BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM CLOSELY AND HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLANS PREPARED, AS THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SERIOUS THREAT AND CAUSE DAMAGE THIS WEEKEND.
AN UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT OR SOONER, IF NEEDED.
FORECASTER
DALE DESTIN
