TROPICAL WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ST. KITTS AND NEVIS AS OF
11:00 AM ECT THURSDAY, AUG 20, 2020
WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
11:00 AM ECT THU, AUG 20, 2020
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER, A
WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY…
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM OR
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSE A POSSIBLE
THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. RESIDENTS
SHOULD START TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE DISASTER PLANS.
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IS
CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IMPACT THE ISLANDS. GIVEN
THE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK INTENSITY
AND SIZE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IT IS STILL NOT CERTAIN
WHAT EXACT TROPICAL CYCLONE HAZARD VALUES, IF ANY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. NOTWITHSTANDING,
THE DEPRESSION COULD BE IN THE VICINITY BY LATE FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, AS A TROPICAL STORM. THEREFORE, IT POSES A THREAT
TO ST. KITTS AND NEVIS, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM STORM FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS,
MINOR STORM SURGES AND MINOR FLOODING. RESIDENTS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND START TO IMPLEMENT
THEIR DISASTER PLANS.
AT 11 AM ECT OR 1500Z THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST
OR ABOUT 713 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. KITTS & NEVIS. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 21 MPH AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MILES PER HOUR
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008
MB.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM LAURA TODAY. ON ITS
PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY PASS
RELATIVELY NEAR TO OR NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE DANGEROUS WINDS STAYING AWAY FROM
THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK TO THE SOUTH
COULD BRING THE SYSTEM DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO ST. KITTS AND
NEVIS LATE FRIDAY. TO BE SAFE PLANS AND PREPARATIONS SHOULD
BE FOR THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF THE
DEPRESSION IMPACTING THE ISLANDS WITH MINIMAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. NOTWITHSTANDING, THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
CAUSE LIMITED TO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE, POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGE
AND DISRUPTION TO TRAVEL.
RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AND HAVE
THEIR STORM PLANS PREPARED, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER
TO AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED LATER.
FORECASTER
PATRICE EDWARDS
ANTIGUA & BARBUDA MET SERVICES.
