WHCA31 TAPA
HURRICANE SAM ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 5:27 AM ECT SUN SEP 26, 2021
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
…SAM REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A HURRICANE IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA. WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME BUT MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
BASED ON CURRENT INFORMATION AND ANALYSIS, HURRICANE SAM IS EXPECTED TO PASS AT A SAFE DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND IMPACT TO THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE, THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT TO THE ISLANDS WITH RESPECT TO WINDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ANY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS, HENCE THE NEED FOR CONTINUOUS MONITORING.
AS THE SYSTEM PASSES EXTENSIVE IMPACTS FROM SWELLS/ SURFS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT COASTAL AREAS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOIL EROSION AND RIP CURRENTS THEREFORE TO BE SAFE, RESIDENTS WILL BE ASKED TO AVOID THESE AREAS UNTIL THE ALL CLEAR IS GIVEN.
AT 5 AM AST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST OR ABOUT 837 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 1038 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SAM IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. THEN, A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SAM IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THEREAFTER, SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
SAM IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB (27.85 INCHES).
RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE SAM.
THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AFTER 11 AM TODAY.
FORECASTER LETITIA HUMPHREYS
