TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
12:08 PM ECT TUE, SEP 5, 2023
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS FORMED IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEK…
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS NOW FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN, LOCATED 1422 EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 1694 EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE FORECAST TRACK STILL REMAINS HIGHLY UNRELIABLE DUE TO ITS FAR DISTANCE FROM THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, A MAJORITY OF MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRE WILL LIKELY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AT WHICH TIME IT IS FORECAST TO BE A
MAJOR HURRICANE. HENCE, AT THIS EARLY STAGE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN POSES LITTLE THREAT TO THE ISLANDS. NOTWITHSTANDING, IT’S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE SYSTEMS MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION AND NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB
BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL TRACKS, THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT THE NEAREST POINT TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. MOST OF THE HAZARDOUS WINDS COULD STAY CLEAR OF THE ISLANDS BUT IMPACT ON THE ISLANDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THINGS WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH TIME. PLEASE NOTE THAT NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.
TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY, WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND HAVING YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN PREPARED AND READY. ADDITIONALLY, PLEASE STAY ACTIVELY VIGILANT AND MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN CLOSELY.
AN UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN AROUND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FORECASTER
LETITIA HUMPHREYS
