WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 12:15 PM ECT WED SEP 27 2023
…TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ENTERING THE MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN, WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL PATH OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK MORE WEST THAN NORTH DESPITE THE FORECAST OF A WEST NORTHWEST MOTION. GIVEN THE LATEST UPDATE, AT REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO, THE STORM NOW POSES AN ELEVATED OR MINOR THREAT TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED IMPACTS FROM
MINIMAL STORM-FORCE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE IMPACTS FROM ABOVE-NORMAL SWELLS.
AT 11 AM ECT OR 1500 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST OR ABOUT 593 MILES EAST OF THE ST. KITTS AND NEVIS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, WITH SLOW WEAKENING FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL TRACKS, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS; HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF SUSTAINED STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAIN LOW, BUT THIS COULD INCREASE, IF THE SYSTEM PERSISTS ON A WESTERLY PATH.
WATCHES AND OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION, IF A WATCH OR WARNING BECOMES NECESSARY. ALL ARE ALSO STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO STAY PREPARED FOR THE REST OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN BY 5 PM TODAY, OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED.
FORECASTER
DALE DESTIN
