WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:00 AM ECT FRI, SEP 28, 2018
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
AT 5 AM (0900 UTC)THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT
217 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
331 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
KIRK CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST AT NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TROPICAL STROM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CAUSE KIRK TO WEAKEN TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY AND THEN DEGENERATE INTO A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF KIRK WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB OR 29.68 INCHES.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NO WARNINGS OR WATCHES BEING ISSUED FOR THE LEEWARD
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AS KIRK CONTINUES ON ITS WESTWARD PATH. HOWEVER,
SPIRAL BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM ARE LIKELY TO BRING CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
ISLANDS LATER TODAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL CRAFT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WHILE A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR BEACHGOERS AGAINST HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS.
RESIDENTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE ADVISED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK UNTIL IT EXITS THE AREA.
FORECASTER
LETITIA HUMPHREYS
