WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 WATCH STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:00 AM ECT FRI, AUG 21, 2020
THIS IS FOR ST KITTS AND NEVIS
DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE CONTINUES TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IMPACT THE ISLANDS. GIVEN THE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IT IS STILL NOT CERTAIN WHAT EXACT TROPICAL CYCLONE HAZARD VALUES, IF ANY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
NOTWITHSTANDING, THE DEPRESSION COULD BE IN THE VICINITY BY LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY, AS A TROPICAL STORM. THEREFORE, IT POSES A THREAT TO THE ISLANDS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM STORM FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS, MINOR STORM SURGES AND MINOR FLOODING. RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT THEIR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLANS IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY.
AT 5 AM ECT OR 0900Z THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF ST KITTS AND NEVIS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 21 MILES PER HOUR AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND NEAR OR NORTH OF THE BVI ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB OR 29.77 INCHES.
ON ITS PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY PASS NEAR TO OR NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE DANGEROUS WINDS STAYING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. HOWEVER, ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. TO BE SAFE PLANS AND PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE FOR THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF THE DEPRESSION IMPACTING AREA. THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED DAMAGE, POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGE AND DISRUPTION TO TRAVEL. A WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER TODAY.
REPEATING THE 5:00 AM ECT POSITION, 17.8 N, 58.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT A LATER TIME.
FORECASTER
BERNELL SIMON
